So sorry to catch up with this only now, Ethan. So much has gone on this month that who knows what comes next is anyone's guess.
Things are truly desperate when the resisters are looking to replace their decrepit, moribund leadership by calling for a decrepit, moribund president for the liberation. The point you make about the longer-term effect - that there doesn't seem to be a post-theocratic regime plan even emerging, let alone positioning in place - is worrying, and I'm not sure that Reza Pahlavi, as well-meaning as he may be, is an answer, as his presence on the scene may have too much of the scent of his father's autocratic regime simply returning to replace the current autocratic regime...which had emerged to replace his father's regime. Add Trump to the mix, and there's the likelihood of a corrupt scene to overwhelm whatever progressivism there is - perhaps a Middle Eastern equivalent of post-Soviet Russia in the 1990s, when the confusion in the haste of the transition gave rise to the criminal elements that have run rampant ever since.
What is needed is someone like an Iranian Lech Walesa. Someone with the moral gravity and political skill, plus the charisma and ability to project this as a package on the world stage. Is there anyone remotely up to the task?
Lee hi — Very true. Pahlavi gained support instrumentally because he has a core group of supporters nostalgic for the days of the Shah — and it would be impossible for such a figure to survive long enough to gain any kind of following. I don’t think anyone knows how this will play out.
I wrote this yesterday if of interest: and will repost here in a few days best!
So sorry to catch up with this only now, Ethan. So much has gone on this month that who knows what comes next is anyone's guess.
Things are truly desperate when the resisters are looking to replace their decrepit, moribund leadership by calling for a decrepit, moribund president for the liberation. The point you make about the longer-term effect - that there doesn't seem to be a post-theocratic regime plan even emerging, let alone positioning in place - is worrying, and I'm not sure that Reza Pahlavi, as well-meaning as he may be, is an answer, as his presence on the scene may have too much of the scent of his father's autocratic regime simply returning to replace the current autocratic regime...which had emerged to replace his father's regime. Add Trump to the mix, and there's the likelihood of a corrupt scene to overwhelm whatever progressivism there is - perhaps a Middle Eastern equivalent of post-Soviet Russia in the 1990s, when the confusion in the haste of the transition gave rise to the criminal elements that have run rampant ever since.
What is needed is someone like an Iranian Lech Walesa. Someone with the moral gravity and political skill, plus the charisma and ability to project this as a package on the world stage. Is there anyone remotely up to the task?
Lee hi — Very true. Pahlavi gained support instrumentally because he has a core group of supporters nostalgic for the days of the Shah — and it would be impossible for such a figure to survive long enough to gain any kind of following. I don’t think anyone knows how this will play out.
I wrote this yesterday if of interest: and will repost here in a few days best!
https://www.thebeiruter.com/article/trumps-latest-high-stakes-gambit/1175
Thanks Ethan, good read.
Woefully, appallingly, it seems Khamenei has decided to stay.