What Shaped Trump’s Decision To Join Israel Against Iran?
It wasn't just the nukes
June 21, 9 PM EST
It’s not just the bunker-busting bombs.
As I write, Trump joins Israel in the war against Iran, directly. There will be significant consequences. The net effect will depend on a few factors that are either unknown to the general public, or inherently unpredictable. Will the bunker buster bombs work? It’s not clear.
Is the regime on the verge of collapse -- as Assad’s was? And how much have Israeli strikes contributed to its fragility? How will the average Iranian react once/ if he or she understands the regime no longer has control over their daily lives? How might the regime react if pressed to the wall with no way out? Someone may have a convincing answer to all of these questions. They’re probably not writing pieces on Substack.
Ostensibly, Israel needs the US help with bunker busting bombs that can penetrate Iran’s hardened uranium enrichment facilities at– Fordow and Natanz. But as the voice of Israel’s left, Ha’aretz points out, Israeli intelligence is just as concerned, if not more so, by Iran’s ballistic missile program, which appears poised to make a huge leap to being able to evade Israel’s Iron Dome.
For these reasons – and as ever, domestic politics – Netanyahu is now overtly pushing for regime change. Israel’s PM of course realizes that there is benefit in having company, for if the project fails, Israel will be held to account by the international community two disasters, Iran -- and Gaza. The narrative will not be one of a victory against the region’s most destabilizing state , with necessary collateral damage in pursuit of eliminating an Iranian client, Hamas.
Given enough time and firepower, the US and Israel will be able to knock out Iran’s offensive capabilities. The big questions – for me at least, are whether the Iranian regime will resort to a ‘poison pill’ option – attacking US bases in the Gulf, setting fire to Gulf oil fields, or initiating some diabolical post-fact terror plan. Second, will Iran descend into a field of chaos – or something altogether more benign. That – is, at least partly in the hands of the Iranians. Remember, in 2009, Iranians did try to overthrow the regime, with the “Green Revolution.” The US decided it was too risky to help.
It’s also worth understanding that the United States is no innocent bystander in Iran’s Islamic Revolution and its continuance. Interventions dating back to the 1953 overthrow Iranian PM Mohammad Mosaddegh contributed to the success of Ayatollah Khomeini’s Islamic revolution in 1979. In more recent years, America has been complicit in the expansion of Iran’s proxy network. While the 2015 JCPOA (or Iran Nuclear Deal) had its selling points, it was not backed up by a concerted effort to hold the line against the expansion of Iran’s violent regional proxies, from Hezbollah to Hamas, to Iraqi Shi’a militias, to the Houthis. These are the same groups whose influence Israel has rolled back since the start of the war in Gaza.
When German Chancellor Merz quipped recently that Israel is doing the West’s Dirty Work, he wasn’t necessarily making an ethical call, he was being descriptive.
Many things can be true at once. Now, we’ll have to see how things play out.
The Middle East-Told Slant offers a non-partisan, practitioner's perspective on Middle East politics, conflict, and culture. Written by a former US diplomat, Senior Middle East Analyst, and author of "Benghazi: A New History" (Hachette, 2022) and the forthcoming "Red Sea: A History of the World's Most Volatile Waterway." To receive weekly posts and support this project, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I offer paid subscribers a complimentary copy of any of my books in print (equivalent to the cost of the subscription — DM me to redeem).
We simply can't keep our hands out of the pants of that part of the world. By aligning ourselves so closely to Israel as it is now - even more than before - we'll forever dirty our hands with it.
I wish that people would understand how badly both countries are using each other. Israel does this knowing full well that if it ever got into a tight jam, the U.S. will come riding to the rescue, as the global cavalry it has set itself up to be. The U.S. does what it does knowing how reliable a proxy Israel has made itself, and can always use Jewish people and anti-Semitism as a cover for its own meddling, which is rather rich considering that the ranks of those who push the overall policies for U.S. support of Israel are full of anti-Semites and fascist sympathizers.
I'm not one of these people who believe that Israel has no right to exist. It does. But are Israelis comfortable with being used in the way they are? This isn't a dumb country, and these aren't dumb people. But I have to believe that so many Israelis have the political imagination to see a different kind of position, and different relationship, with its neighbors. The Israeli-SA talks were an attempt towards that end.
It isn't helped that hardly anyone looks good in that part of the world, which is all the more reason why we should stay out of it. But I can't see any political imagination in the U.S. towards a different conception. The biggest problem? Poor, unimaginative leadership and corrupt actors in positions of power they have made themselves unfit for, or were unfit or outright illegitimate for to begin with.