Not One, But Three Leaders' Futures Lie in the Balance

The Iranian Regime Could Do Major Damage to the US and Israel Just By Surviving

Is there any buyer's regret in the White House, now that the deed is done? If so, we likely won't see much of it.

Iran's Consultative Assembly ('parliament'), voted today to close the Straits of Hormuz. This is a bureaucratic move not a fait accomli, but it is a strong reminder of the potential for global turbulence following the US bombing of three Iranian enrichment sites in the B-2 Stealth "Operation Midnight Hammer."

This was one of a menu of known possible outcomes, and one can see why Iran would move towards it: Such a move immediately expands the number of major world powers immediately impacted by the conflict. For one, a major share of Asia’s oil and natural gas supplies move through the the 21-mile wide straits of Hormuz, separating the Gulf from the Indian Ocean — mostly to China, South Korea, Japan, and India).

A closure would inevitably result in a global price shock — which could well trigger a global recession, from which of course the US would not be immune.

The One-Two-Punch

If Yemen's Houthis have enough fight left in them, which is likely, and they are able to throw enough firepower at the lower Red Sea, they could help produce one of Saudi Arabia's worst nightmares — a closure of the Kingdom's two main oil export channels — Hormuz, and the Bab El Mandeb. This would force Saudi crude exports to Asia to go West, not East, through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, and around the African Cape, raising prices at a time when Saudi Arabia is critically dependent on high oil prices to fund its economic transition. Quickly, Trump’s staunches allies and adversaries could be agitating for a US reversal.

The Status of Iran's Nuclear Components

As many military commentators have pointed out, while the exo-structure of Iran's three main, known enrichment sites may have been 'obliterated' as Trump claims, this is not confirmation of a complete destruction of enrichment capacity within them — or the parts outside of them.

Iran (might) have been about to reveal the location of an additional clandestine site to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), before these strikes. And it's not clear the Trump administration or even Israel, knows where Iran's existing inventory of enriched Uranium is.

The Parts That Got Away?

This highlights the risk discussed earlier of either a 'dirty bomb' or a more limited, and even more clandestine continuance of Iran's nuclear program. An additional threat relates to whatever ability Iran may have to wage a campaign of attacks against US assets and personnel, asymmetrically, through smaller scale attacks in the region and outside. See Substacker Tam Hussein’s piece New Lines Magazine, and this by Graeme Wood in The Atlantic.

Musical Chairs

In the end, there's a good chance at least one government will fall, and while its near term viability is in question, Iran's regime may just have to survive, to cause major damage to the leadership and standing of its two prime adversaries — the US and Israel.

One hopes that every possible scenario was played out and examined carefully in light of all available data before the strikes. Given the US' and Israel's recent histories this is a generous assumption.

That said, we are still squarely in the zone of the unknown.

The Middle East-Told Slant offers a non-partisan, practitioner's perspective on Middle East politics, conflict, and culture. Written by a former US diplomat, Senior Middle East Analyst, and author of "Benghazi: A New History" (Hachette, 2022) and the forthcoming "Red Sea: A History of the World's Most Volatile Waterway." To receive weekly posts and support this project, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I offer paid subscribers a complimentary copy of any of my books in print (equivalent to the cost of the subscription — DM me to redeem).