The Trap Springs Shut: How October 7th Became Iran's Strategic Disaster
While the mainstream media focuses on whether or not the U.S. will enter the Israel-Iran conflict directly, one has the sense that the watershed has already been reached— and that the war is going very badly, perhaps existentially so, for the Ayatollahs.
This is visible in President Trump’s recent announcement that he would take a couple of weeks to decide whether to deploy bunker-busting bombs on Iran’s hardened enrichment sites. It was also present in the faltering rhythm of Iran’s missile strikes, which while lethal, should be weighted against Israel’s dominance of Iran’s airspace, and the expansion of targeting from enrichment facilities to the offices of domestic security services.
Tehran could have planted a poison pill somewhere, but the odds of that also decrease with time. The biggest immediate risk of escalation may come from the final acts of a desperate regime. And the Middle East is notorious for throwing curveballs.
Looked at in context, the current war is the culmination of years of systematic Israeli dismantling of Iran’s offensive and defensive capacity, with the clear objective of ‘ending’ Iran’s nuclear program and most likely, the regime itself. [It should be noted that one current argument holds that attacking Iran’s nuclear program is ultimately futile, given the knowledge embodied in its nuclear scientists, for example. But Israel has visibly targeted them, too. Also, it’s actually quite hard to build a nuclear warhead, even if one knows how to do so.
German Chancellor Merz’ recent public comments that Israel is doing the West’s “dirty work,” are an indication that there is likely much more support for the current campaign than many other Western leaders, including of course Trump, are willing to admit publicly. The timing of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) warning over Iran’s suspected non-compliance with nuclear non-proliferation safeguards provided added cover for Israel’s attack.
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Stepping back a bit farther, Hamas’ devastating attack on Israel on 10/7 – which Iran supported materially, and whose timing was also tied to both Iran and Hamas’s deep concerns over Israel-Arab rapprochement – can be seen to be Iran’s unwitting springing of the very trap in which it now finds itself. In this view, Hamas is the diabolical, willing dupe. Absolutely none of this mitigates the fact that Gazans in numbers, have borne the disproportionate brunt of this Machiavellian, multi-player game.
Regardless, it will be instructive to see over the longer term how historians break down the antecedents to what is happening now: There are a number of paradoxes and parallels that need unraveling, and they can't all be coincidental.
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The Abraham Accords of 2020, which resulted in an Israel-UAE normalization and treaties between Israel and three other Arab States were framed as an inversion of the old paradigm of Middle East peace, bringing Arabs and Israelis together on basic issues of resource scarcity, economic growth, and external security — i.e., restraining Iran — in a way that created interdependencies that would be difficult to unravel.
Yet the Abraham Accords’ Achilles' Heel was the fact that they did not, and could not, directly address the issue of a Palestinian state — at least at that time, or ultimately in time to prevent the Gaza conflagration.
Iran helped prepare Hamas to attack Israel in order to interrupt the next expected phase of the Abraham Accords’ roadmap: an Israel-Saudi deal. But this, in turn, set in motion an event of such devastating psychological consequence for Israelis —10/7 — that Netanyahu suddenly had full license to turn an ostensibly "local" fight with Hamas, into a cover for a takedown of most of Iran's regional allies and proxies — from its crown jewel, Hezbollah, in Lebanon, to the upstart Houthis in Yemen (who, while not decapitated, have survived as Iran’s strongest remaining regional ally).
With Hezbollah neutralized, Assad’s Syria fell, offering Israel the opportunity to tear down Syria’s Iran-supporting air defenses, so as to make a future Israeli strike against Iran not only possible, but very probable.
This pattern of systematic dismantling of Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities was clear within months of 10/7 – and it fit exactly with Netanyahu's 30+-year obsession with Iran as the primary and existential threat to Israel. The growing cost of human lives, and the continuing suffering of Israeli hostages in Gaza’s tunnels further committed Netanyahu to maximalism.
Unless Iran has hidden a poison pill somewhere, the most likely outcome, right now – (and I’m well aware that one makes predictions at one's peril in the Middle East), is the end of the Iranian regime — “as we know it.”
Will this involve a mutation of the current order – for better or worse — or a complete overthrow? Will it be a peaceful transition or an extended, chaotic one? One thing is for sure: The US will not be arriving quickly with an army of state-builders –- Or will we? A ground intervention, probably not. Hotel franchises and defense contractors? That much more Trump’s style.
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Netanyahu is right when he boasts that Israel is “changing the face of the Middle East.” Whether this change is ultimately for the worse or better is not something upon which I’d want to bet - but divesting Iran of, at least, its mid-term nuclear weapons aspirations, is a positive. As for the Palestinians, If the Iranian threat is neutralized, they may have even fewer cards with which to defend themselves from predators outside, and inside.
Alternately, who knows, perhaps Netanyahu shape-shifts again, and presents the Gaza war was a necessary step in pursuit of a much greater evil — it’s worth highlighting that this was the same calculation that Hamas made when it set Gaza up for the carefully-provoked Israeli rampage —and converts a surge of popularity at home to a mind-boggling peace overture.
Alternatively, the Israeli public, experiencing a traumatic catharsis, might decide that the ends no longer justify the means— and usher the Prime Minister out, opening the door for a deeper consideration of Israel’s direction. Increasingly, the basic outcome of the war is less in doubt than the changes it creates in regional dynamics.
The Middle East-Told Slant offers a non-partisan, practitioner's perspective on Middle East politics, conflict, and culture. Written by a former US diplomat, Senior Middle East Analyst, and author of "Benghazi: A New History" (Hachette, 2022) and the forthcoming "Red Sea: A History of the World's Most Volatile Waterway." To receive weekly posts and support this project, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I offer paid subscribers a complimentary copy of any of my books in print (equivalent to the cost of the subscription — DM me to redeem).