After Operation Midnight Hammer

Israel's Faltering Nuclear Gambit Points To A Common Enrichment Option

In mid-May, as Iran-US negotiations over its nuclear program were underway in the Sultanate of Oman, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi allegedly proposed to Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff that Iran join other Arab Gulf states in common production and enrichment of uranium feedstock for peaceful energy use, under joint safeguards.

In advance of these meetings, Iran had dramatically increased its illicit supplies of highly enriched uranium (to 60% and above. 90% is weapons grade)—presumably to increase its leverage in negotiations.

According to Iran, its main interest remains to maintain 'peaceful’ low-grade enrichment on its own soil — which it has claimed as its sovereign, inviolable right. (This is a position that appears to be strongly supported by the majority of Iranians).

A spokesman for Witkoff claimed no proposal was floated by Iran in Oman in mid May. Nevertheless, the White House 'countered' two weeks later with its own offer, which took up the common enrichment and production idea, but added a critical detail: no Iranian enrichment on its own soil.

In the face of Iran's recalcitrance, Trump's maximalism, and Netanyahu's urging, Trump launched "Operation Midnight Hammer" on June 21, against the three major, known Iranian enrichment sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan.

As The Fog Lifts, Troubles Emerge

The results of the US bombing are unsettlingly murky. The three enrichment sites appear to have been seriously damaged, but not obliterated, as Trump continues to claim. Iran may have moved highly enriched uranium to secret sites prior to the attack—and has officially withdrawn from the non-proliferation obligations, putting all of its nuclear activities outside the view of IAEA inspectors.

Now, Iran has an immediate and pressing incentive to create a workable bomb, a process that would clearly need to be done quickly, and in the dark, to avoid detection and another round of strikes.

We don't know if Israeli and US intelligence is fully capable of monitoring progress towards that goal, and disrupting a clandestine program in time. Further, Russia and China have offered to assist Iran rebuild its program (Russian scientists had been assisting Iran prior to the strikes). It's even conceivable that by the time Israel started attacking Iran in June, Iran had already prepared itself to 'absorb' a joint US-Israeli hit, while plotting to realize a "quick and crude" route to a bomb.

A Rational Way Forward

It would be dangerous at this point for the US to continue to insist that Iran’s enrichment capacity has been decimated, while sticking to its maximalist demand that Iran give up all future enrichment.

Instead, the Trump administration would do well to take advantage of the impressive leverage created by the knock down to Iran's regional proxy network and the destruction of its other military assets, to launch a joint Arab-Iranian framework for peaceful enrichment and production of nuclear energy.

The Gulf states will not brook Iran becoming the 'leader' of this initiative, as they have their own ambitions in this regard, and do not trust Iran. But there appear to be ways the Iranian and American positions on this idea might be bridged, while satisfying Gulf needs for autonomy over their own peaceful programs.

And for such a scheme to work, the Arab states must be brought in as equal parties, not window-dressing. A common regional approach to nuclear power would be a valuable precedent for a number of other regional resource-swapping schemes.

Israel will surely not like any of this, but convincing the US to enter into the fray has not paid off in the way Netanyahu no doubt promised, and the US must defend its own interests, not just Israel’s (or more pointedly, Netanyahu’s). Given the dangers of "loose" Iranian nuclear material, and the continuing threat of a regional nuclear arms race, priority must be put on getting the IAEA inspectors back, in full force. Trump acceded to Israeli pressure — now he needs to wield a healthy dose of his own.

Coming Pieces:

“American Pirates — in the Red Sea?”

And, soon, a kickoff podcast episode with Gidon Bromberg, of the trailblazing Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian “environment and peace” advocacy organization Eco-Peace.

The Middle East-Told Slant offers a non-partisan, practitioner's perspective on Middle East politics, conflict, and culture. Written by a former US diplomat, Senior Middle East Analyst, and author of "Benghazi: A New History" (Hachette, 2022) and the forthcoming "Red Sea: A History of the World's Most Volatile Waterway." To receive weekly posts and support this project, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. I offer paid subscribers a complimentary copy of any of my books in print (equivalent to the cost of the subscription — DM me to redeem).